Risk Analysis in Construction Scheduling
Large and complex construction projects always face an uncertainty that leads to risks of delaying the project. Construction projects are of different sizes and of different nature and risk associated with them also vary. Schedules are very essential to the successful execution of projects. Without a schedule, it is difficult to coordinate the various activities found in a construction project. Most schedules are developed in a deterministic manner using Critical Path Method. Unfortunately, construction schedules are affected by various uncertainties. As a result, schedule delays are common in various construction projects. Therefore, it is important to find out probabilities of schedule delays. To evaluate the probability of construction time-overruns and Forecasting of appx. Accurate project completion date is a challenge to construction schedulers. Management of risks and uncertainties in construction projects is possible if risks have been identified and the potential impacts have been analyzed. The Critical Path Method (CPM), which is used to schedule construction activities, is deterministic with regard to the duration assigned to the execution of the activities and the results produced in certain values. Unfortunately, construction activities are performed under uncertain conditions. Project risks cause variations in activity duration, and in turn the entire network is affected by uncertainty. To evaluate construction networks by considering risk factors, nondeterministic scheduling methods such as the program evaluation and review technique (PERT), the probabilistic network evaluation technique (PNET), Critical Chain Scheduling (CCS), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) have been developed. In the present work, an attempt is made to study the effect of uncertainties in the project on the total duration of the project in an Indian context. For this, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique is used. Effect of different distributions for different activities and the number of simulations on the total project duration are determined and compared with the CPM and PERT. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to show the influence of each uncertain activity on the total project duration.
Published by: Musale Kunal Rajendra, Aher M. C.
Author: Musale Kunal Rajendra
Paper ID: V2I6-1246
Paper Status: published
Published: December 20, 2016
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